An early rash of West Nile virus infections in Manitoba, including the most severe neurological form of the virus, has public health officials concerned about a possible outbreak in regions of Canada this summer.

Manitoba Health announced the year's first West Nile infection on June 21, and has since identified 24 additional cases, outpacing any other year. The virus did not show up last summer in human blood tests until early August.

“We're concerned we may be going in the same direction we did in 2003,” said Paul Sockett, an infectious disease expert with the Public Health Agency of Canada. That year, the worst yet for the mosquito-borne virus, 14 people died from a total of almost 1,500 infections.

In 2003, West Nile hit hardest in Saskatchewan, the only other province to identify infections this year, with four cases so far.

A Manitoba Health official said the extent of the disease's reach this year is difficult to predict, but some indicators are pointing to a rough summer ahead.

Both the size of the mosquito population and the number of infected mosquitoes found are higher than the province has seen in the past, Susan Roberecki said.

Weather is partly to blame. A mild winter and a wet spring, followed by a stretch of hot weather in the Prairies, generated the ideal conditions for the spread of mosquitoes, which acquire the virus from infected birds.

“How many more cases we might see is very dependent on the weather,” Dr. Roberecki said.
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