The Des Moines Register's presidential debates, set for today and Thursday, are the last meetings of the candidates before the leadoff Iowa caucuses and most meaningful of the dozens already held this year, campaign strategists agree.
Republicans, scheduled to debate today, will meet with the caucus campaign in flux as better-known candidates aim for former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee, the surprise leader in Iowa with three weeks until caucus night.
Democrats get their chance Thursday, with Illinois Sen. Barack Obama, New York Sen. Hillary Clinton and former North Carolina Sen. John Edwards trying to emerge from a tight, three-way battle for the lead in Iowa.
The traditionally final pre-caucus meetings of the candidates in Iowa are earlier than ever and are scheduled for midweek, unlike the weekend events of recent campaigns. The timing is the result of the early caucuses, set for Jan. 3, which were pushed up as other states have threatened Iowa's leadoff status.
But more than 200 news organizations plan to cover the Register's debates, which will be nationally televised as well as carried live on the Internet, giving them wide reach.
"With just over 20 days left until the Iowa caucuses, the Des Moines Register debates could have a seismic impact on the race," said John Lapp, a Democratic strategist who ran Democrat Dick Gephardt's 2004 Iowa caucus campaign. "With so many undecideds still looking to make up their minds, a fatal flub or a shining performance could fundamentally change this race and significantly shape the outcome of the Iowa caucuses."
The GOP debate will be the 10th this year, while the Democrats' Thursday is the 16th.
Today marks the first GOP meeting since Huckabee shot to the top of polls in Iowa and near the top of polls nationally. It presents an opportunity for former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney, who had led in most Iowa polls for much of the year, to challenge Huckabee, Iowa GOP strategist Steve Grubbs said.
"For the first time, Huckabee is in the cross hairs," said Grubbs, former state party chairman and past Iowa adviser to Steve Forbes and Bob Dole. "If he folds, then he'll just be another guy who ran for president. But if he fares well, he'll be a legitimate potential GOP nominee."
The Huckabee surge makes today's debate different from previous debates, including the previous GOP Iowa debate held in August, or even the most recent debate in Florida two weeks ago.
Romney has put together the Republican field's most extensive campaign organization in Iowa and spent millions of dollars on advertising since February, making the stakes high for him in the state. Romney, on Tuesday, launched the first ad of the 2008 campaign in which a candidate criticizes another by name.
The ad focuses on Romney's differences with Huckabee on immigration, the top domestic concern among GOP caucusgoers, according to the Register's November Iowa Poll. In the ad, Romney's campaign points to Huckabee's support for in-state tuition for illegal immigrants in Arkansas and Romney's veto of similar legislation.
Expect Romney to bring up the point today, said Terry Nelson, political director in President Bush's 2004 re-election campaign.
"Given the fact that the race has sharpened up a lot and given the fact that you have the first criticism being aired of another candidate by name, I think that that sets up the potential for a debate where there could be some real contrast and conflict between candidates," said Nelson, a native of Marshalltown.
The 90-minute debates are scheduled to begin at 1 p.m. at Iowa Public Television's studios in Johnston and will be moderated by Carolyn Washburn, vice president and editor of The Des Moines Register.
In addition to Huckabee and Romney, Republicans planning to participate are former New York Mayor Rudy Giuliani, U.S. Rep. Duncan Hunter of California, former Ambassador Alan Keyes, Arizona Sen. John McCain, U.S. Rep. Ron Paul of Texas, U.S. Rep. Tom Tancredo of Colorado and former Tennessee Sen. Fred Thompson.
Clinton, Edwards and Obama plan to attend Thursday's Democratic debate, as do Delaware Sen. Joe Biden, Connecticut Sen. Chris Dodd and New Mexico Gov. Bill Richardson.
The Register poll taken two weeks ago showed about 60 percent of likely Republican caucusgoers were still open to switching their support, while about half of Democrats said they could still change their minds.
Thursday's Democratic debate comes after a month of increasingly sharp back-and-forth between Clinton and Obama, with Edwards having stepped up his characterization of Clinton as an entrenched Washington insider.
The candidates have toned down the criticism during recent debates, although they have maintained the aggressive tone on the campaign trail.
Democratic strategist Stephanie Cutter said she expects the Democrats to lay out contrasts Thursday but remain wary of coming across as negative.
"The caucus winner is always the candidate with the strongest closing argument, the person who best sets up the choice. That choice includes a contrast, but more importantly it includes a vision for the future," said Cutter, 2004 Democratic presidential nominee John Kerry's communication director. "The candidate who can articulate that will likely emerge from the debate best positioned to win."
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Republicans, scheduled to debate today, will meet with the caucus campaign in flux as better-known candidates aim for former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee, the surprise leader in Iowa with three weeks until caucus night.
Democrats get their chance Thursday, with Illinois Sen. Barack Obama, New York Sen. Hillary Clinton and former North Carolina Sen. John Edwards trying to emerge from a tight, three-way battle for the lead in Iowa.
The traditionally final pre-caucus meetings of the candidates in Iowa are earlier than ever and are scheduled for midweek, unlike the weekend events of recent campaigns. The timing is the result of the early caucuses, set for Jan. 3, which were pushed up as other states have threatened Iowa's leadoff status.
But more than 200 news organizations plan to cover the Register's debates, which will be nationally televised as well as carried live on the Internet, giving them wide reach.
"With just over 20 days left until the Iowa caucuses, the Des Moines Register debates could have a seismic impact on the race," said John Lapp, a Democratic strategist who ran Democrat Dick Gephardt's 2004 Iowa caucus campaign. "With so many undecideds still looking to make up their minds, a fatal flub or a shining performance could fundamentally change this race and significantly shape the outcome of the Iowa caucuses."
The GOP debate will be the 10th this year, while the Democrats' Thursday is the 16th.
Today marks the first GOP meeting since Huckabee shot to the top of polls in Iowa and near the top of polls nationally. It presents an opportunity for former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney, who had led in most Iowa polls for much of the year, to challenge Huckabee, Iowa GOP strategist Steve Grubbs said.
"For the first time, Huckabee is in the cross hairs," said Grubbs, former state party chairman and past Iowa adviser to Steve Forbes and Bob Dole. "If he folds, then he'll just be another guy who ran for president. But if he fares well, he'll be a legitimate potential GOP nominee."
The Huckabee surge makes today's debate different from previous debates, including the previous GOP Iowa debate held in August, or even the most recent debate in Florida two weeks ago.
Romney has put together the Republican field's most extensive campaign organization in Iowa and spent millions of dollars on advertising since February, making the stakes high for him in the state. Romney, on Tuesday, launched the first ad of the 2008 campaign in which a candidate criticizes another by name.
The ad focuses on Romney's differences with Huckabee on immigration, the top domestic concern among GOP caucusgoers, according to the Register's November Iowa Poll. In the ad, Romney's campaign points to Huckabee's support for in-state tuition for illegal immigrants in Arkansas and Romney's veto of similar legislation.
Expect Romney to bring up the point today, said Terry Nelson, political director in President Bush's 2004 re-election campaign.
"Given the fact that the race has sharpened up a lot and given the fact that you have the first criticism being aired of another candidate by name, I think that that sets up the potential for a debate where there could be some real contrast and conflict between candidates," said Nelson, a native of Marshalltown.
The 90-minute debates are scheduled to begin at 1 p.m. at Iowa Public Television's studios in Johnston and will be moderated by Carolyn Washburn, vice president and editor of The Des Moines Register.
In addition to Huckabee and Romney, Republicans planning to participate are former New York Mayor Rudy Giuliani, U.S. Rep. Duncan Hunter of California, former Ambassador Alan Keyes, Arizona Sen. John McCain, U.S. Rep. Ron Paul of Texas, U.S. Rep. Tom Tancredo of Colorado and former Tennessee Sen. Fred Thompson.
Clinton, Edwards and Obama plan to attend Thursday's Democratic debate, as do Delaware Sen. Joe Biden, Connecticut Sen. Chris Dodd and New Mexico Gov. Bill Richardson.
The Register poll taken two weeks ago showed about 60 percent of likely Republican caucusgoers were still open to switching their support, while about half of Democrats said they could still change their minds.
Thursday's Democratic debate comes after a month of increasingly sharp back-and-forth between Clinton and Obama, with Edwards having stepped up his characterization of Clinton as an entrenched Washington insider.
The candidates have toned down the criticism during recent debates, although they have maintained the aggressive tone on the campaign trail.
Democratic strategist Stephanie Cutter said she expects the Democrats to lay out contrasts Thursday but remain wary of coming across as negative.
"The caucus winner is always the candidate with the strongest closing argument, the person who best sets up the choice. That choice includes a contrast, but more importantly it includes a vision for the future," said Cutter, 2004 Democratic presidential nominee John Kerry's communication director. "The candidate who can articulate that will likely emerge from the debate best positioned to win."
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