CLEVELAND — Snow fell steadily this week as nursing-home employees knocked on doors in working-class neighborhoods for Barack Obama. Across town, in a room furnished with tables and a coffee maker, hospital and school workers clutching cellphones made calls for Hillary Rodham Clinton.
Unions and their concerns — topped by jobs, trade and health care — are highly visible in Ohio in advance of Tuesday's pivotal Democratic primary. The state's political leaders say whoever has the best economic message will win — the primary, the nomination and the general election.
"What is the issue that matters most in the states that matter most electorally?" asks Ohio Democratic Party Chairman Chris Redfern. He says those states are Ohio, Pennsylvania, Michigan, Illinois, Wisconsin, Iowa and Minnesota, and answers his own question: "Building a robust economy. You don't have to walk away from trade to do it."
Ohio was a heartbreaker for Democrats in 2004, when John Kerry lost the state — and the presidency — by 118,601 votes. But the party made a big comeback in 2006 with wins for governor, U.S. senator and other offices.
This year, Ohio may play as decisive a role in the nomination process as it often does in general elections. Clinton, who leads by 4 to 8 percentage points in recent polls here, needs a victory to revive a campaign battered by 11 straight losses. An upset win for Obama, particularly if he also wins Texas the same day, could make him his party's presumptive nominee.
The North American Free Trade Agreement, pushed and signed by Clinton's husband, former president Bill Clinton, is a flash point here for economic unease. As they tour devastated manufacturing areas around the state, Obama and Clinton are pledging a new era of trade pacts that elevate worker and community concerns. They even say they'd scrap NAFTA if Canada and Mexico won't renegotiate it.
Susan Helper, an economist at Case Western Reserve University, says Ohio has lost 200,000 jobs since 2000: 20,000 directly due to NAFTA, 40,000 due to other trade issues and some of the rest indirect casualties of trade. NAFTA's main effect, she said, has been to give more bargaining power to "companies, which are mobile," and less to workers, "who are not."
Clinton and Obama are deluging the state with economic prescriptions, from a moratorium on foreclosures (Clinton) to tax breaks for employers who keep jobs at home (Obama). Both would invest heavily in "green" energy jobs and rebuilding infrastructure. Today, Clinton releases a plan to combat child poverty in Hanging Rock, in the Appalachian Mountains.
Sen. Sherrod Brown, who is neutral in the race, says the candidate with the best ideas for recovery "wins hands down" on Tuesday.
Political analysts predict a tight contest as Obama's campaigning, ads and organization eat into Clinton's advantages as a well-known senator and former first lady. "It's closing fast for Obama, which has been his pattern all through this primary season," says Alexander Lamis, a political scientist at Case Western Reserve University.
Daniel Coffey, a political scientist at the University of Akron, says Obama is aided by a "circular dynamic": "The more he seems to do well, the more positive coverage he gets, and the more voters paying attention to him for the first time see positive stories about him."
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Unions and their concerns — topped by jobs, trade and health care — are highly visible in Ohio in advance of Tuesday's pivotal Democratic primary. The state's political leaders say whoever has the best economic message will win — the primary, the nomination and the general election.
"What is the issue that matters most in the states that matter most electorally?" asks Ohio Democratic Party Chairman Chris Redfern. He says those states are Ohio, Pennsylvania, Michigan, Illinois, Wisconsin, Iowa and Minnesota, and answers his own question: "Building a robust economy. You don't have to walk away from trade to do it."
Ohio was a heartbreaker for Democrats in 2004, when John Kerry lost the state — and the presidency — by 118,601 votes. But the party made a big comeback in 2006 with wins for governor, U.S. senator and other offices.
This year, Ohio may play as decisive a role in the nomination process as it often does in general elections. Clinton, who leads by 4 to 8 percentage points in recent polls here, needs a victory to revive a campaign battered by 11 straight losses. An upset win for Obama, particularly if he also wins Texas the same day, could make him his party's presumptive nominee.
The North American Free Trade Agreement, pushed and signed by Clinton's husband, former president Bill Clinton, is a flash point here for economic unease. As they tour devastated manufacturing areas around the state, Obama and Clinton are pledging a new era of trade pacts that elevate worker and community concerns. They even say they'd scrap NAFTA if Canada and Mexico won't renegotiate it.
Susan Helper, an economist at Case Western Reserve University, says Ohio has lost 200,000 jobs since 2000: 20,000 directly due to NAFTA, 40,000 due to other trade issues and some of the rest indirect casualties of trade. NAFTA's main effect, she said, has been to give more bargaining power to "companies, which are mobile," and less to workers, "who are not."
Clinton and Obama are deluging the state with economic prescriptions, from a moratorium on foreclosures (Clinton) to tax breaks for employers who keep jobs at home (Obama). Both would invest heavily in "green" energy jobs and rebuilding infrastructure. Today, Clinton releases a plan to combat child poverty in Hanging Rock, in the Appalachian Mountains.
Sen. Sherrod Brown, who is neutral in the race, says the candidate with the best ideas for recovery "wins hands down" on Tuesday.
Political analysts predict a tight contest as Obama's campaigning, ads and organization eat into Clinton's advantages as a well-known senator and former first lady. "It's closing fast for Obama, which has been his pattern all through this primary season," says Alexander Lamis, a political scientist at Case Western Reserve University.
Daniel Coffey, a political scientist at the University of Akron, says Obama is aided by a "circular dynamic": "The more he seems to do well, the more positive coverage he gets, and the more voters paying attention to him for the first time see positive stories about him."
Discuss Add this link to... Bury
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